Possible scenario
Hormuz Shock Deepens
30% Chance
The IEA release proves insufficient because maritime delays and insurance costs worsen around the Strait of Hormuz. Traders focus on the limited remaining capacity of strategic reserves after more than 400 million barrels have been deployed.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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