Possible scenario
Reserve Limits Dominate
18% Chance
Markets shift from the size of the IEA release to the question of how much emergency stock remains usable. Concerns over depleted U.S. SPR and European reserve limits put a floor under crude even without new Hormuz disruptions.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Tickers
- COP+1.5%
- +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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