Possible scenario
UAE Pressures Israel
18% Chance
The UAE may use its access to Netanyahu to push harder for Gaza cease-fire implementation, aid access, and a reconstruction pathway that includes regional partners. This would test Israel-UAE normalization but could improve cease-fire prospects if handled quietly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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