Possible scenario
Managed Regional Friction
30% Chance
Israel continues to resist formal roles for Turkey and Qatar in Gaza, while the UAE avoids an open rupture with either side. This preserves diplomatic ambiguity and keeps tensions contained but unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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