Possible scenario
Escalation Gains Traction
20% Chance
Russia exploits the modified Iskander-M design before Ukraine and NATO can fully adjust defenses. A larger missile campaign increases uncertainty around Ukrainian infrastructure resilience and raises the risk of strikes near Western supply corridors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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