Possible scenario
Adaptation Contains Threat
40% Chance
Russia continues using modified Iskander-M missiles, but the operational effect remains incremental rather than decisive. Ukrainian crews, U.S. advisers, and European air-defense partners adapt engagement doctrine and prioritize Kyiv intercept coverage while conserving scarce Patriot rounds.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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