Possible scenario
Probe Contains Fallout
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Merz's camp and federal security agencies frame the Russia-funding issue as an investigatory matter rather than a governing crisis. The CDU/CSU uses the allegation to reinforce the firewall against AfD while prosecutors and the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz review party-linked financing channels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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