Possible scenario
AfD Backlash Grows
25% Chance
AfD portrays the allegation as an establishment attack coordinated by Merz, security services and foreign officials. Given the party's recent polling strength and state-level breakthroughs, a backlash that consolidates its base is a realistic near-term path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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