Possible scenario
Injunction Holds Firm
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Southern District of New York order remains in effect while the court reviews the legality of ICE's transfer and deportation plans. DHS and ICE comply formally, and the dispute shifts to medical access, attorney access, and custody conditions rather than immediate removal.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.