Possible scenario
Investigation Proceeds Quietly
42% Chance
The most likely path is a standard criminal investigation handled by local law enforcement while the campaign limits public comment. Arizona Democrats and national party committees avoid detailed statements beyond support for the candidate and deference to police.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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