Scenario description
Assume DR Congo’s current Ebola outbreak is brought under sustained operational control on or before the resolution date. The latest supplied MarketBrief summary reports that DR Congo has enrolled more than 250 people in a prevention trial during its deadliest Ebola outbreak, with government data showing about 8,300 confirmed cases and more than 4,000 deaths and France increasing response funding amid fears of resurgence. In this scenario, DR Congo health authorities or major international health authorities report that confirmed transmission has fallen to a level consistent with sustained containment in the affected outbreak areas, or that the outbreak is formally over. The exact trial efficacy, case-decline rate, vaccine or prophylaxis coverage, and geographic endpoint remain unspecified unless later authority reporting provides them.