Scenario description
Assume DR Congo’s current Ebola outbreak continues to show material confirmed transmission through the resolution date despite prevention-trial enrollment, vaccination, surveillance, treatment, security, funding, or humanitarian-response efforts. The latest supplied MarketBrief summary reports that DR Congo has enrolled more than 250 people in a prevention trial during its deadliest Ebola outbreak, with government data showing about 8,300 confirmed cases and more than 4,000 deaths and France increasing response funding amid fears of resurgence. In this scenario, national or international health authorities have not declared the outbreak over or under sustained control by the cutoff, and credible reporting continues to indicate confirmed new infections, renewed transmission, active outbreak-response operations tied to transmission, or authority statements that the outbreak remains uncontrolled. The exact case-growth rate, spread path, additional deaths, and response-resource levels remain unspecified unless later authority reporting provides them.