Possible scenario
Toll And Losses Rise
25% Chance
Further landslides, delayed flood reports and difficult access to damaged neighborhoods push the casualty count higher. Insurance, transport and utility shares face sharper short-term pressure, though the event remains a regional disaster rather than a global macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Utilities -0.7%
- Finance -0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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