Possible scenario
Disruption Lingers
20% Chance
Even if fatalities stabilize, water damage and safety inspections may keep parts of the Tokyo-area transport network impaired. The economic hit is concentrated in passenger transport, tourism, logistics and event activity rather than national output.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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