Possible scenario
Pentagon Mediates Oversight
30% Chance
Washington avoids validating Zelenskyy's accusation but responds with more oversight of the Starlink and Starshield contracts. This preserves service continuity while adding compliance, reporting, or payment conditions that slightly reduce SpaceX's policy flexibility.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-2.3%
- VSAT+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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