Possible scenario
Security Channel Persists
45% Chance
Israel and Saudi Arabia continue quiet intelligence sharing on Houthi missile and drone activity, but Riyadh avoids public normalization steps. This is the most likely path because it lets Saudi Arabia improve security coordination without abandoning its stated demand for a Gaza cease-fire and a Palestinian state.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- LMT+0.2%
- RTX+0.2%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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