Possible scenario
Narrow Fraud Case
35% Chance
The FBI and DOJ present the case as a contained ballot-harvesting and false-registration operation rather than evidence of statewide manipulation. California officials cooperate with parts of the investigation while disputing Trump’s broader fraud claims, keeping the legal fight intense but institutionally bounded.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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