Possible scenario
Escalation Against Officials
20% Chance
The investigation moves beyond alleged private actors and targets state or county election officials for obstruction, document handling, or alleged ballot irregularities. This would raise the risk of a broader constitutional dispute between the Trump administration and California before the 2026 vote.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Finance -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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