Possible scenario
Western Response Escalates
20% Chance
The warning accelerates Western military and sanctions planning even before the full strike picture is clear. The response focuses on air defense, ammunition, intelligence support, and new restrictions on Russian finance and energy logistics.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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