Possible scenario
Coercive Pause
25% Chance
Russia uses the threat of intensified strikes to pressure Ukraine and Western governments without immediately executing the most destructive option. Diplomatic evacuations and backchannel talks proceed in parallel, keeping risk elevated but below crisis levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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