Possible scenario
Protests Broaden Nationwide
18% Chance
The Berlin demonstration becomes a focal point for a wider Gen Z backlash against compulsory service, especially if universities and unions coordinate actions. This would not by itself overturn the law, but it would create a short-term domestic political-risk premium around Germany.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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