Law Survives With Concessions

The Scholz-era rearmament consensus has largely survived into 2026, and the current government is likely to preserve mandatory service while softening implementation. The most probable path is a tactical compromise: broader deferments, more civilian-service options, and clearer protections for students rather than a full repeal.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.