Possible scenario
Refinery Disruption Persists
35% Chance
Ukraine continues to prioritize Russian fuel infrastructure after repeated strikes on Moscow and Volga Valley refining assets. The most likely market-sensitive outcome is temporary disruption to refined-product supply rather than a systemic oil shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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