Possible scenario
Damage Proves Limited
20% Chance
Russian air defenses and emergency crews limit the physical damage despite the scale of the drone barrage. Investors fade the initial geopolitical premium as the event looks similar to prior contained cross-border attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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