Possible scenario
Security Pact Consolidates
45% Chance
Turkey's handover of Bashiqa becomes the visible proof that the 2024 Iraq-Turkey security pact is functioning. Baghdad gains a sovereignty win while Ankara preserves influence through training, intelligence coordination, and anti-PKK cooperation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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