Possible scenario
Managed PKK Friction
25% Chance
Turkey continues pressure on PKK positions in northern Iraq, but the handover creates a framework for advance notification and Iraqi political cover. Friction persists with Kurdish actors, yet Ankara and Baghdad avoid a rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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