Possible scenario
Iraqi Sovereignty Politics
15% Chance
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani uses the transfer to show that Baghdad can regain control over foreign military footprints without confrontation. Domestic factions then debate whether the same model should apply to other foreign deployments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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