Possible scenario
China Trade Thaw
20% Chance
The export record is reinforced by the 2025 easing of selected China export controls and the restart of aircraft-related shipments. The market reaction is positive but bounded because political risk around US-China trade remains high.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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