Possible scenario
Energy-Heavy Record
25% Chance
The headline record is real but concentrated in hydrocarbons, reflecting Europe’s continued need for US LNG and strong global demand for US crude. Investors reward energy exporters but give less credit to the broader manufacturing cycle.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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