Possible scenario
War Coalition Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Republican hawks and enough Democrats keep supporting the Iran campaign despite the visible gasoline shock in Kansas and other inland states. The prior 50-49 Senate vote suggests the anti-war bloc remains just short of forcing a policy reversal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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