Possible scenario
Gulf Tensions Widen
18% Chance
A less likely but still material path is that Iran or allied forces test U.S. enforcement around Hormuz after Washington signals no political retreat. Because oil markets are already stressed, even incremental shipping risk can quickly reprice crude and volatility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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