Possible scenario
Temporary Carrier Pullback
30% Chance
The Sofia diversion prompts European and Gulf carriers to reassess Israel operations, especially after the recent Delta bomb threat clearance and Flydubai suspension. The likely result is a short-lived reduction in foreign airline capacity rather than a full closure of Ben Gurion Airport.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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