Possible scenario
Hoax Quickly Contained
45% Chance
Bulgarian and Israeli authorities determine the bomb threat was not credible after screening the aircraft, passengers, and baggage in Sofia. Austrian Airlines resumes its Tel Aviv rotation with added checks, and the incident is treated as part of the recent pattern of aviation threats rather than a confirmed attack.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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