Possible scenario
Phased Base Approval
42% Chance
The White House accepts Lithuania's offer to fund a permanent U.S. presence, but rolls it out in phases to limit costs and avoid an immediate NATO-Russia crisis. The most likely version is a durable armored and logistics presence near Rukla or Pabrade rather than a sudden Cold War-style megabase.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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