Possible scenario
NATO Alternative Package
18% Chance
Washington and NATO choose a broader deterrence package instead of a formal permanent U.S. base. This gives Lithuania additional security while lowering the symbolic escalation risk around a new U.S. installation near Kaliningrad.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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