Possible scenario
Audit Expansion Push
25% Chance
The Trump administration uses the charges to justify broader data-sharing requests between DOJ, DHS, USCIS, and state election offices. Republican-led states are more likely to cooperate, while Democratic attorneys general challenge the program as an unlawful national voter-roll system.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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