Possible scenario
Courts Limit DOJ
20% Chance
Civil-rights groups and state officials obtain judicial limits on how DOJ can use DHS immigration databases for voter investigations. This would follow the earlier court block of Trump’s national eligible-voter-list order and constrain the administration’s leverage over states.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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