Possible scenario
Talarico Upset Win
30% Chance
Talarico's fundraising edge, media presence, and Paxton's personal baggage prove more durable than expected. A Democratic win in Texas would be treated as a major political upset and a sign that GOP control of the Senate is less secure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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