Possible scenario
Paxton Holds Seat
42% Chance
Elon Musk's late money narrows Talarico's advertising advantage and lets Ken Paxton consolidate Republicans who were uneasy after the impeachment fight. Texas remains red enough that a fully nationalized race still favors the GOP nominee if turnout patterns resemble recent statewide elections.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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