Possible scenario
Selloff Stabilizes
35% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that the semiconductor selloff pauses as investors treat the longest losing streak since 2008 as technically stretched. Buyers return selectively to AI-levered names if no new export-control action or capex warning follows immediately.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.9%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA+3.4%
- +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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