Export Curbs Escalate

U.S.-China policy risk remains the central downside scenario because recent reviews of Nvidia's China-focused AI chips have already made investors sensitive to export-control headlines. A tougher Commerce Department stance would reinforce the view that China revenue is becoming less predictable for U.S. semiconductor companies.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.