Possible scenario
Leverage Unwind Deepens
20% Chance
The rout exposes crowded positioning in single-stock, leveraged, and retail-linked products that had amplified the AI rally. Forced selling becomes the dominant near-term driver, especially in Korea-listed technology shares and domestic brokerages.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.1%
- Finance -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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