Possible scenario
Seoul Stabilizes Market
35% Chance
South Korean authorities treat the rout as a market-function problem rather than a fundamental crisis. The Financial Services Commission, Korea Exchange, Bank of Korea, and large domestic institutions move to calm volatility without reversing the broader AI-chip repricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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