Possible scenario
Diplomatic Backlash Abroad
20% Chance
Some partner governments face domestic criticism over accepting non-citizen deportees from the United States. The most likely friction is diplomatic and operational rather than systemic, but individual countries could suspend intake or demand more funding.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Tickers
- GEO-0.6%
- CXW-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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