Possible scenario
Court And State Pushback
27% Chance
Civil-rights groups, state officials, and immigration lawyers challenge the deals on due-process and non-refoulement grounds. Even after the Supreme Court allowed swift third-country removals, lower courts could slow parts of the program through notice, screening, or country-specific restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- GEO-0.9%
- -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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