Possible scenario
Phased Stake Sale
45% Chance
Scott Bessent and Treasury pursue a cautious ownership reset rather than an immediate full exit from conservatorship. The most likely path is a limited public offering or secondary sale that tests market demand while preserving the federal backstop and FHFA control.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
- MTG+0.9%
- RDN+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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