Possible scenario
Targeted Waiver Negotiated
28% Chance
Washington uses the blocked gold as leverage in talks over Venezuelan minerals, elections, creditor settlements, and Citgo-linked claims. A limited license is plausible if proceeds are ring-fenced or tied to U.S.-approved counterparties.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Finance +0.3%
Tickers
- COP+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.