Possible scenario
Compliance Freeze Holds
42% Chance
U.S. gold refiners maintain the block on Venezuelan-origin gold tied to Minerven or state-controlled channels. The most likely near-term outcome is prolonged due diligence rather than a sudden policy reversal, because sanctions exposure remains high and provenance records are difficult to verify.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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