Possible scenario
DHS Produces Evidence
20% Chance
A less likely but politically damaging scenario is that DHS or ICE releases some documentation supporting a connection between the arrested man and Stelson campaign activity. The key distinction would be whether the evidence shows formal employment, volunteer work, vendor involvement, or only attendance at campaign events.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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