Possible scenario
DHS Clarifies Claim
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is a clarification from DHS or ICE narrowing the original claim after the Stelson campaign challenges it. Federal agencies often avoid extended public fights over campaign-specific wording when records do not clearly support the strongest version of the allegation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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